The 20th
anniversary
edition
March 14 & 15, 2025
at UNESCO • Paris

Jérémie Danicourt, as a partner at Bain & Company working in the "Energy and Natural Resources" sector, how do you describe the current energy situation?

Jérémie Danicourt : Energy is vital for our economy as it powers the physical flows that constitute it. However, the global energy system is under strain, with increasing bottlenecks for energy access. We have passed the peak of conventional oil supply globally and the North Sea gas supply in Europe. Additionally, there are short-term effects from increased demand post-COVID and reduced supply due to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. In France, we are also facing challenges with the availability of our nuclear fleet. Meanwhile, the necessary acceleration of the energy transition will require a very different energy mix than what we have known since the start of the industrial era. Fossil fuels (oil, coal, gas), which still account for 80% of global consumption, will play a smaller role. Therefore, it will be crucial to secure strategic energy supplies to keep the economy running while massively accelerating the development of low-carbon energy sources. Additionally, there will be work needed on production, transport, and storage infrastructures. Energy efficiency, whether voluntary or imposed, may serve as an adjustment variable if necessary.

In 2020, according to the Ministry of Ecological Transition, domestic air traffic accounted for 3.8% of CO2 emissions from the transport sector in France. What is the real challenge for the aviation sector to achieve decarbonization?

The aviation sector has set an ambitious goal to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050. This involves reducing its impact in line with the Paris Agreement and, more broadly, ensuring its long-term survival.

From our perspective, this is a huge challenge for the sector. Even if all available levers are activated—such as replacing aircraft with newer, more efficient models, using less emissive fuels, and improving flight and ground operations—the sector will likely need more time to achieve carbon neutrality. This is especially true if we assume continuous traffic growth in the coming decades. Again, efficiency might serve as an adjustment variable.

According to your expertise, what are the potential solutions to address these challenges? (Alternative energies, reduction or cessation of air transport, etc.)

From a propulsion perspective, there are three main options for less CO2-emissive fuels. In order of maturity, they are: biofuels, including synthetic fuels, electricity, and hydrogen. Each option has its own challenges.

Regarding biofuels: This option is already viable and used for first-generation fuels. However, we know that supply will quickly become limited. Second-generation biofuels (from biomass and household waste) are progressing and will be part of the solution, though we will also soon face supply constraints. Synthetic fuels theoretically offer an unlimited supply, but they are still experimental and thus uncertain.

Electric propulsion is the most energy-efficient option. We believe it will be part of the long-term solutions. Unless there is a technological revolution, battery density will continue to limit its use to short and medium-haul flights by 2050.

Finally, hydrogen. Despite the buzz, we do not believe it will be a significant part of the solution by 2050 due to operational and technical constraints (e.g., storage space requiring aircraft structure changes, recharging times), costs, and availability, particularly due to expected competition from other sectors of the economy.

Even with accelerated development of new fuels, we think it will not be enough; accelerating aircraft renewal will also be necessary. This will enable quicker transitions to more efficient models. All this will inevitably increase costs and, therefore, ticket prices. If these tickets are not subsidized, there will be an impact on demand—though this could, in turn, accelerate emission reductions.